The invasion of Georgia by Russia has been a long time coming and one that was easy to foresee. The Russians have been pointing their cannons that way for months now and made no secret of their feelings about Georgia’s refusal to allow South Ossetia to rejoin North Ossetia.

When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, North Ossetia was included within Russian borders and their family and friends living in the South half of this tiny province wanted to rejoin them. A separtist movement grew, supported by the Russians who naturally saw it as an opportunity to gain a little more territory. That Georgia became an ally of the United States and a candidate for NATO only upset the Russians further, since Russia still sees us as an enemy to be competed with.

Georgia should have allowed the South Ossetians to settle the matter by democratic vote. They didn’t because they knew that the vote would be to rejoin North Ossetia and Russia, so they continued to hold South Ossetia by force in the face of Russian might and Russian demands. They should have known better.

The Russians are as aggressive as ever and they’re going to sieze every possible opportunity to take advantage in any way, to once again expand their sphere of dominance, to again try to conquer and rule Europe. Up until now they’ve been trying to do this economically using oil for their leverage. The wealth of oil has been rebuilding the Russian war machine, however, and this is a display meant to do a lot more than just snatch back a bit of territory. It’s intended to intimidate the other breakaway nations who escaped when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Russia may well not stop with taking South Ossetia but continue advancing into Georgia and force Georgia to become their satellite once again. Since we are doing nothing to protect our ally, the Russians may not stop there but start renewed aggression against other neighboring states to force them into their “Federation” once again.

The reason nothing is being done to stop Russia by us or Free Europe is simple. Oil. Russia has pipelines going right into European refineries and supplies much of their oil. Russia has already given a display of what happens when their demands aren’t met, by shutting off the natural gas supply in the dead of winter and letting people freeze.

With the U.S., Bush won’t defend our ally Georgia simply because the Russians won’t interfere with Iraq. It’s pretty plain that deals have been made and plain that the Russians feel that they’re exploiting a weakness of ours. How far they go with this exploitation, will no doubt unfold soon. Will they conquer Georgia and force them into their Federation, in spite of outrage from the West?

We’ll soon find out.