Archive for March 1st, 2012

No Way Out?

Thursday, March 1st, 2012

Israel, Iran and Obama are still at the top of the news and rightly so, considering that this really is the most pressing issue humanity confronts at this time.

Israel is somewhat dependent on the U.S. for our military backup and technology but mostly for diplomatic support, being surrounded by hostile neighbors. The U.S. is dependent on Israel also for technology and for being a staunch ally in a Middle East that’s constantly scheming against the world in one way or another. It’s a balancing act that other nations, like Russia, are always trying to upset in order to change power equations in their favor.

Russia’s latest effort this way is to threaten an attack on anyone who attacks Iran, in order to deflate Israel’s strength and position. This, of course, would also weaken our posture on Iran if we accept Russia’s threat as being valid. If Obama backs down, the Russians win and gain Middle East power while we and Israel lose it. Israel would have to go it alone against Iran and then very likely face an attack from the Russians, who know we wouldn’t aid Israel.

Israel might then use their atomic weapons, and away we go.

Or… Obama will issue a military threat against Iran but a weaker one than the Israelis need or can accept, so they go ahead and attack Iran.  Russia attacks Israel.

Or… Obama sides strongly with Israel because he wants to get re-elected and sees no other choice at this point, even though he hates to do it. Israel attacks Iran. Russia does or does not attack Israel.

Whether Russia intervenes or not depends entirely on whether Obama gives Israel our backing as our ally. If he doesn’t, whether it’s because he wants to see Israel destroyed or not, the Russians will take that as cowing before their threat, and they will attack Israel when Israel attacks Iran. The Russians have always hated the Jews. There have been more pogroms against the Jews in Russia than any other country on the planet, and more than that, this would give Russia far greater influence with the Arab nations than they now have. It always comes down to a conflict between American power in the world, and Russian power.

Iran isn’t going to give up their goal of making nukes to blast Israel with. Israel isn’t going to back off from attacking them before it’s too late.  What happens after that depends entirely on what Obama does. This thing is finally coming to a head, there’s no way out of it that I can see, and how bad it gets is up to a radical Marxist who is up to his lower lip in Chicago corruption, who is a black racist, Africa-firster, pathological liar and an anti-Semite, and who puts his own personal agenda ahead of national needs.

That makes it hard to see a best-case scenario here.

UPDATE: Given the past cooperation, or perhaps collusion is a better word, between Russia and Israel on military technological matters, the possibility that Russia is making threats simply as a diversion to appease Iran shouldn’t be disregarded, considering the high level of trade between Iran and Russia.