Putin and Erdogan have been responding back and forth to each others comments and moves, and it’s not what they say but the way in which they say it that reveals, to me anyway, where they’re really at.
Putin has been yanking the economic rug out from under the feet of Turkey and Erdogan’s political strength. If Turkey suffers too much from Erdogans foolishness, I would expect to see him removed from office ala Mohammad Morsi style in Egypt, with riots, civil unrest and demonstrations. I’m calling it foolishness now because of what the tone of his responses reveals to me.
Putin has done the following so far: Sent in anti-missile missile batteries, jamming systems, a guided missile cruiser, bomber escorts and Electronic Surveillance aircraft, all for one purpose, to counter Turkish military and even attack it if needed. He has cut off all economic exchange between the two countries, confiscated huge amounts of imported Turkish foods, banned further tourism into Turkey, stopped all commercial traffic into Russia from Turkey, blocked all Turkish services from operating in Russia and requested that all Russians now in Turkey return to Russia. This brings to an abrupt halt over half of Turkey’s economy. He’s also blocked all communication with Erdogan, making it impossible for Erdogan to try to reach some sort of private deal. Think on that one. Erdogan either does a very public and humiliating mea culpa or watches as his country’s economy suddenly crashes. No doubt more sanctions are coming. All of this could have been avoided by Erdogan if he’d apologized for attacking the Russian jet as Putin initially demanded.
Erdogan’s response is to refuse to apologize, but says he hopes to speak with Putin at the global climate summit that begins in Paris on Nov. 30. That’s it, nothing else. Putin is wiping his ass with Erdogan’s face, and Erdogan is cavilling and wanting to talk. This is why I think what Erdogan did was foolish, and not well planned.
I think that Obama told Erdogan that shooting down a Russian bomber would be a good way to get Putin to back off of his attacks on those fighting against Assad, gave him the flight info that Russia had provided the US of their aircraft flight paths, and Erdogan went for it. Now Erdogan is in the soup and looking for a way out without making himself look like an idiot by apologizing.
The thing is, Erdogan is totally in the wrong, and I applaud Putin for not taking a diplomatic approach to this assault. Turkey under Erdogan has gone from being secular to being Islamist, and has become a real trouble-maker in the region. If this does expand into a war between Russia and Turkey, that’s a good thing. France, Germany and England are all aligning with Russia RIGHT NOW, and if Obama tries to get our troops to fight our allies, our Congress will finally unite regardless of party to prevent it.
There’s only one more move by Putin before actual war begins between Russia and Turkey, so watch for it, and that’s if Putin ORDERS all Russians to leave Turkey. If he does, expect a major Russian attack on Turkey’s military and infrastructure to commence within a few days afterward.