I’m seeing, or beginning to see, what might be a pattern. This morning on is the linked article about the new trade deal between us, Mexico and Canada. The writer points out that part of the new pact are prohibitions against making trade pacts with “non-market countries”, basically meaning China, and against currency manipulation, which China also engages in.

That’s one. Another point is that Pres. Trump is making one-on-one deals, aka Bilateral Trade deals, instead of the Multilateral deals that were the norm before. At the start of his presidency he refused to ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership, that include Japan, Australia, Canada, Mexico and 10 other nations including the US, and their response was to create a new and nearly identical TPP that left the US out of it and removed 98% of all tariffs. However, the option was left open for the US to rejoin.

Pres. Trump wants to protect American industry and workers, so he wants to ensure that trade with these other nations is mutual and balanced, and would require tariffs if needed to ensure that. This means that our re-entry into the TPP would need to be re-negotiated to ensure parity in trade, and since the largest economies in the PTT want us back in, this may yet happen. A point to add here is that 6 members need to ratify this trade pact and so far only 3 have done so, 2 of them being Mexico and Canada, who are also our brand new USMCA trade pact partners. If 2 more sign on, and they can’t get a 6th, we’d have a strong negotiating position.

Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is pushing for more one-on-one trade pacts with European partners, all no doubt based on the same premises, parity instead of trade deficits, no currency manipulation, no pacts with China. The more these trade partnerships are created, the more China gets frozen out of the world market, until China has to make a choice: War, which would destroy everything the Chinese have been working for: a massive financial depression and a return to Third World status: Or, an enforceable trade pact with the rest of the world that guarantees trade parity and no cheating without serious consequences.

If China can be brought to heel, Russia would happily join in a global fair trade pact. If all nations are united in trading fairly and equally, everyone would prosper. And after all, what really runs the planet is money, wealth and the wealthy.

It’s a nice thought for the morning, time will tell.

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