Much has been made about the value of the black vote in our pending presidential election, so I thought I’d point out the reality of the situation.
Black people turned out very heavily for Barack Obama to elect him the first time, with 68% of eligible black voters voting in the 2008 election and about 95% of them voting for Barack Obama. In 2012 their turnout was 66%, again almost all voting for Obama. This is a pretty normal turnout rate for black voters, what isn’t quite so normal is their choice of parties when voting. Normally, 10% of blacks will vote Republican but because the Democrat candidate was black, they voted for his race.
However, things have changed with this election. Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, is not black and not popular, and has a negative history regarding American blacks. Donald Trump, however, is an Equal Opportunity employer who disregards race, and a lot of black preachers have endorsed him. The biased, Liberal polls have him receiving 10% of the black vote and it’s likely to be much higher than that.
At the same time, the number of blacks actually voting may be way down from previous years, because Clinton is so unpopular, and this could mean a drop of as much as 5% of votes cast for her. That equates to a gain of 5% for Trump and a total disparity of 10% in his favor.
It works like this. If both of them start out with 50% and then 5% that would normally vote Democrat don’t vote at all, the vote tally is then 52.5% for Trump and 47.5% for Clinton. But if those 5% blacks vote for Trump instead of Clinton, then we have 55% Trump, 45% Clinton.
If just one percent more of blacks votes for Trump, that adds up to a 2% increase in his lead. This is why the black vote matters.