Ever stop to think that with the Strait of Hormuz blocking all that oil from getting to refineries, that pumping it out of the ground has to stop at some point? I did. It hit me that the system is geared for a fairly constant level of output that’s matched to a fairly constant level of refining capability and subsequent storage for a gently fluctuating market. A reasonable balance must be maintained between production and storage.
It turns out that THIS IS VITAL. This balance absolutely must be maintained, because once most oil wells are shut down, they’re lost. They can’t be started back up again. For instance, “Oil sands or thermally-assisted wells (like those in Canada) cannot just be switched off. Reducing steam injection quickly causes the reservoir to lock up or experience water intrusion, risking millions in lost future production.” So Canada is about to lose some/many/all of it’s oil wells.
Iran has only about two weeks left of oil production before they have to shut down their wells because they’ll be out of storage capacity no later than June 16. Doing so will damage their oil wells and fields. Google says, without explanation, that “Sudden and long-term halts at oil production plants risk permanent damage to a fuel reservoir and make it increasingly difficult to restart operations and reach the same level of output as before.”
On researching this, I found that reasons for it are plentiful and the most common are that most of the oil is forced out without pumping by natural gas and that the gas pressure is often lost when shutting down a well, and that water which normally lies under the oil tends to rise and cover the oil if the well’s shut down, destroying the well.
So when Iran’s wells shut down, their economic problems are multiplied and they may not recover. The same thing is happening to all the OPEC states and the Saudis, they’re already running out of storage space and have had to drastically reduce or stop both oil and natural gas production. 35% of the world’s total energy supply passed through the Strait.
If the Strait of Hormuz opened back up today, the wells would still have to be shut down because it takes about 45 days for a supertanker to go from, for instance, Iran to China. Once emptied, it’s another 45 days back to load up with more, so starting from RIGHT NOW, there will be no more storage space available for oil for another three months.
When the Strait finally is opened, all the oil wells in the entire Middle East will be shut down and inoperable, and they may never recover nearly what their former production was.
Inflation is going to keep increasing rapidly, it has to, the energy shortage is causing higher energy costs and it takes energy to make everything, do everything, and get it to the stores. Poverty is going to greatly increase while food and shelter become harder to get. Famine brings disease. Ebola may become the next panic button, watch out for new “vaccines” being pushed at us.
So here’s the Bottom Line, courtesy of the Mind of Black Sheep (what would you do without me?): The USA, being the world’s largest producer of oil, and now with Venezuela’s oil fields also at their command, will dominate the world’s oil supply and therefor the world’s economy. The USA is leading in the fight for Planet Master, and is poised to win it. All other nations will become USA’s economic partners, it will be a sort of Super European Union, with the USA making the rules and everyone else following them or suffering severe consequences. That’s the short version, the world is diving straight into major change but it won’t happen overnight.
The EU is dying and the funeral looms closely by. China’s Communist Party will become much more amenable to cooperation with Xi’s inevitable departure, and Russia will follow suit. The UN will be stripped of it’s headquarters because of it’s uselessness, most likely to be exacerbated by the usually rabid and unreasonable Middle Eastern members. The bickering will no longer be tolerated. NATO’s been under attack by Trump for years, they’ll end up in the trash heap along with the UN and EU as all the power comes to reside in the USA-created global economic bloc and those 18 incredibly prime and valuable Manhattan Island acres may become, with the buildings, the new home headquarters of the United World, instead. Seems appropriate.
This is the plan and it’s working. Iran will economically collapse and no longer be able to fund proxies to wage wars. China and others will aid Iran’s nuclear ambitions at their economic peril, if they want to benefit from adequate oil at low prices from the USA/Venezuela bloc. Some of the M.E. states have turned to tourism for income as their oil reserves dwindled, but none of them are going to be able to do more than raise their voices anymore at Israel. They won’t dare to make war or support proxies any more because what oil production they can rebuild will still be thick crude compared to the sweet crude of Venezuela and the USA that they will easily lose any price war to.
The Great Islamic Caliphate will die on the vine as the money runs out. Islam will always be a problem, of course, but moderation will win out and Islam may eventually die out with China in the partnership, considering the Chinese intolerance for any religion. Of course, at this point my certainty has devolved into speculation. Time moves on.